Abstract
The energy industry is faced with important investment and optimization choices especially for wind power as a fuel of the future, especially for China which boasts the largest installed wind power capacity. This study therefore assessed the potential status of future wind power over China using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Changes in wind power density relative to the current time period 1981–2005 were then analyzed using near-surface wind speeds extrapolated to hub-height of 90 m above ground level. The results showed relatively modest differences between the models and reanalysis. The majority of the models showed any two of location, shape, and size agreement for peak areas albeit models BCC-CSM-1-1-M, BNU-ESM, and CanESM2 tended to overestimate wind speed by up to 2.5 m/s. The multi-model ensemble mean performed better than most individual models in representing the wind characteristics over the study area. Future changes in wind power density showed an increase (decrease) over the coastal areas of the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (areas along the 30°–40° N belt). In all, the changes were not significant enough to neither warrant a move away from wind energy nor threaten considerably the marketability and profitability under the present warming scenario rate.
Highlights
The role of wind power in energy portfolios for a green and sustainable future cannot be overlooked.Massive investments and general adoption of wind power globally has seen it emerge as one of the most important alternative energy sources
The ability of the ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models to realistically replicate the climatological patterns of wind speed distribution over the study area, as well as the agreement between models was first investigated
The aim of the study was to assess the ability of various CMIP5 models to skillfully replicate wind energy resources over China and apply that as a tool for future wind power generation projection
Summary
The role of wind power in energy portfolios for a green and sustainable future cannot be overlooked. Massive investments and general adoption of wind power globally has seen it emerge as one of the most important alternative energy sources. Assessing and characterizing wind power resources and potential under future climate is critical to decision-making related to power infrastructure, energy portfolio, and investment/switching costs etc. The accepted possibility of increasing energy demand [8] due in part to extreme weather and anthropogenic effects create a bigger burden on wind power as a fuel of the future
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