Evaluation and projection of precipitation extremes under 1.5°C and 2.0°C GWLs over China using bias-corrected CMIP6 models.

Abstract

China is facing an increasing challenge from severe precipitation-related extremes with accelerating global warming. In this study, using a bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble, future responses of precipitation extreme indices at 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) under the SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios are investigated. Despite different change magnitudes, extreme precipitation events will be more frequent and more intense over China as a whole under higher emissions and GWLs. The increase in annual total precipitation could attribute to a sharp increase in the intensity and days of very heavy precipitation in future global warming scenarios. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C and low emission pathways (i.e., SSP245) instead of 2°C and high emission pathways (i.e., SSP585) would have substantial benefits for China in terms of reducing occurrences of extreme precipitation events.