Abstract
Growing pressure on the world’s water resources is having major impacts on us. In this paper, we discuss on water resources carrying capacity. We have a case study of Shandong Province which is one of the most arid regions in China. Considering the dynamics of water supply and demand, we combine the Falkenmark indicator and the binary dynamics model to establish an evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity. According to the result of our model, Shandong Province is heavily exploited. The per capita water resources in Shandong province were less than 300 m3 in the past ten years. The increasing destruction and increasing waste make the situation even worse. Then ARIMA model and BP neural network is combined to propose a prediction model. We use it to predict the supply and demand of water resources in Shandong Province in the next 15 years
Highlights
Growing pressure on the world’s water resources is having major impacts on our life
Based on the situation of water supply and water demand in Shandong Province in recent ten years, the Falkenmark indicator and a binary dynamics model for population and freshwater resources is used to analyze the ability of Shandong Province to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population
Considering that the water supply and demand in Shandong Province is in a dynamic process of change, a prediction model of neural network based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model is established to predict the supply and demand of water resources in the future 15 years in Shandong Province
Summary
Growing pressure on the world’s water resources is having major impacts on our life. According to the United Nations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the world's population) experience water scarcity. Water scarcity is the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet water needs within a region (Brown, 2011). Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. Humans require water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. Every community and ecosystem on Earth depends on water for sanitation, hygiene, and daily survival
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