Evaluation and Prediction Model for Ice–Snow Tourism Suitability under Climate Warming

Abstract

Studying the changes in tourist comfort is significant for improving the comfort of the tourism experience and for local tourism economies in the context of global warming. An evaluation and prediction model for ice–snow tourism suitability was constructed to objectively evaluate the suitability of ice–snow tourism environments and provided scientific tourism guidance for tourists. In this study, a comparative analysis was conducted on the monthly average temperature of the Jilin Province (China) over the past 40 years. The results show that in the last ten years, Jilin Province became hotter in the summer half-year and colder in the winter half-year. The corresponding climate comfort index (CCI) rose in the summer half-year and dropped in the winter half-year. The analysis showed that it was no longer suitable to evaluate the tourism experience in winter with the CCI alone. By comprehensively considering the CCI, the index of clothing, and the effects of precipitation, an evaluation and prediction model was constructed for an ice–snow tourism suitability index (ISTSI). The ISTSI comprehensively considered the influences of the environmental temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation, as well as subjective human initiatives. The test results show that the ISTSI can quantify the degree of comfort of ice–snow tourism and objectively reflect the changes therein. The evaluation process was simpler than the previous methods.