Evaluation and multi scenario simulation of ecosystem service value in Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area based on PLUS model

Abstract

The research refers to the features of production-living-ecological land use transformation in the Zhengzhou metropolitan area from 1990 to 2020, applies the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and ESV(Ecosystem Service Value)accounting to set three scenarios, and analyzes the spatiotemporal features of ecosystem service value via multi-scenario simulation, aiming to provide technical support to territorial spatial planning and ecological restoration. The results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, agricultural production land has the highest transform volume; the supply, regulation, and cultural services along the Yellow River continued to increase, while support services continued to decrease in the metropolitan areas of Zhengzhou and Xinzheng. (2) Compared with 2020, the supply and regulation services under the ecological protection scenario show an upward trend, and the comprehensive benefits of ecosystem services reach the best. (3) The ecological protection scenario reduces the probability of converting ecological land into living land, making the total ESV grow constantly.