Scenario analysis of the relationship among ecosystem service values—A case study of Yinchuan Plain in northwestern China

Abstract

• Three development scenarios were designed: natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and economic priority scenario. • Under different scenarios, the relationship between different types of ecosystem service values(ESVs) is mostly synergetic. • Under different scenarios, the dominance bundle takes food production as the main function. • After integrating ecosystem service bundle(ESB) and various ESVs trade-offs/synergies, implement differentiated ecological service management for different landscape zones. Clarifying the relationships among regional ecosystem service values is important for ecosystem service management. However, most current studies are based on historical periods or individual time points, and there is still a lack of research on the scenario analysis of the relationship of ecosystem service values. We chose the Yinchuan Plain in northwest China as the research object. Firstly, three development scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and economic priority were designed. Based on the CA-Markov model, a multi-scenario simulation of land use in the Yinchuan Plain is carried out. The value equivalence factor method was then used to calculate the value of ecosystem services, and the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the trade-offs and synergistic relationships between the values of different ecosystem services. Finally, K-Mean cluster analysis and stable metaphorical change trajectory method were used to identify ecosystem service bundle and their evolution trajectories. We found that the ecosystem service value of Yinchuan Plain shows an upward trend under the ecological protection scenario, and the rest of the scenarios and historical periods show a downward trend to varying degrees, and the ecosystem service value declines the most under the economic priority scenario. The dominant cluster is based on food production, and this service bundle is the main function throughout the year. Combining different landscape types, we synthesized the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem service bundles and various ecosystem services values in different scenarios to formulate management strategies for future ecosystem services in different landscape partitions.