EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF TRAFFIC FLOWS IN THE TERRITORIES OF NEW BUILDINGS IN BIG CITIES (BY THE EXAMPLE OF THE CITY OF IZHEVSK)

Abstract

The spaces of Russian cities (the centers of the subjects of the Federation - first of all) have changed significantly due to the growth in housing construction over the past one and a half - two decades. More than 100, mainly multi-storey residential buildings have been built and are under construction in the capital of the Udmurt Republic - Izhevsk. The settlement of new buildings will significantly change the geography of the settlement of the population and the density of the population in individual neighborhoods of the city. The rapid mass construction of buildings creates, in particular, a transportation problem. The transport system is one of the most important components of urban infrastructure. The changes in the geography of the population settlement will lead to changes in the geography of the intensity of traffic flows, to which the city’s road network may not be ready. The problem of such unavailability is due to financial, administrative and technical reasons. After the first and second phases of construction of housing complexes the situation on many important sections of the Izhevsk road network will become significantly more complicated, and the likelihood of road congestion will increase in the next 4-5 years. The authors have developed and applied a methodology for assessing existing traffic flows along the road network, as well as a method for predicting the intensity and directions of prospective traffic flows that will arise during the implementation of construction phases. The “12 micro district” of the city of Izhevsk as a geographical object of research was chosen. The assessment of existing traffic flows was carried out - at the first stage. A forecast was made of traffic on the road network inside and around the perimeter of the “12 micro district” - at the second stage. The results obtained have made it possible to identify the most problematic sections of the street and road network at present and in the near future. The recommendations to overcome the problem situations that were taken to action by the developer were made.