Abstract
Based on the data on land-use change in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, this study uses a combination of land-use dynamics, the equivalence factor method, the sensitivity index, and a spatial correlation study to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of land-use change and ecosystem service values in the study area from 1990 to 2020. We also use a geographic probe model to explore the driving mechanism of the spatial variation of ecosystem service values in Xinjiang. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) land use in the Xinjiang region from 1990 to 2020 shows a more drastic change, with the main characteristics being an increase in the area of arable land and construction land, and a decrease in the area of forest and grassland, water, and unused land; and (2) with the change in the land-use types, the total value of the ESV in the Xinjiang region from 1990 to 2020 showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, with an average annual contribution value of about 13,730.33 × 108 yuan and a cumulative loss of about 1741.00 × 108 yuan in the last 30a. The value of each individual ecosystem service was dominated by functions such as waste treatment and water connotation. Based on the analysis of the geographic probe model, we found that the single factor influence degree of the ESV was HAI > NDVI > precipitation > GDP > temperature > elevation > population density > slope, and the overall ecosystem service value in the Xinjiang region showed a decreasing trend due to the interaction coefficients of natural factors and socio-economic factors.
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