Abstract
AbstractThe aim of this study is to model the responses of Hangar Watershed hydrology to future climate changes under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Future changes in precipitation and temperature were produced using the output of dynamically downscaled data of a regional climate model (RCM) 0.44° resolution under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2025–2055 and 2056–2086. The future projection of the RCM model of precipitation and temperatures showed an increasing trend relative to the base period (1987–2017). At 2025–2055 average annual precipitation increments of +15.7 and +19.8% were expected for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. For 2056–2086 of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, a similar trend was also shown as average annual precipitation may increase by +20.1 and +23.4%, respectively. The changes of climate parameters were used as input into the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the future runoff at Hangar Watershed. The increment in precipitation projection resulted in a positive magnitude impact on average runoff flow. The average annual change in runoff at 2025–2055 of both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 may increase by +24.5 and +23.6%, respectively. In 2056–2086, a change in average annual runoff of +73.2 and +73.2% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 may be expected, respectively.
Highlights
The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation around the globe in general and Africa in particular as its implications are posing negative impacts on society
This study assessed the effects of climate change on the hydrology of Hangar Watershed for 2025–2055 and 2056– 2086 under (RCM) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to simulate runoff
Average annual runoff may increase by þ24.5 and þ23.6%
Summary
The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation around the globe in general and Africa in particular as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. The positive and negative impacts of global climate change on both the natural and social environment. Water resources of Ethiopia, like many other countries of the world, are highly sensitive to climate change and variability (Dile et al ; Chaemiso et al ). W. Galata et al | Impacts of climate change on runoff
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