Evaluating Water Supply Risk in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin Based on an Integrated Optimal Water Resources Allocation Model

Xingjun Hong,Le Wang,Dedi Liu,Haijin Guo,Jun Wang,Guang Yang,Shenglian Guo

doi:10.3390/w8090364

Abstract

The rapid socio-economic development and expanding human-induced hydrological alteration have strengthened the interactions between the social and hydrologic systems. To assess regional water supply security under changing water supply and demand condition in strongly human-impacted area, an integrated water resources management model that fully incorporates water demand prediction, optimal water resources allocation and water supply risk analysis is proposed and applied in the mid-lower reach of Hanjiang River basin. The model is run under three scenarios considering increasing water demand and expanding water diversion projects, and then spatial and temporal distributions of water supply reliability and vulnerability are evaluated. Results show that water supply risk in the mid-lower reach of Hanjiang River basin, especially units that take water directly from the mainstream, will be gradually enlarged in the future due to the expansions of both water demand and inter-basin water diversion capacity. The proposed method provides a practical approach towards more robust decision-making of long-term water resources planning and management under changing environment.

Highlights

Water resources serve irreplaceable functions in human society and ecosystems
The proposed integrated water resources management model to evaluate the water model to evaluate the water supply risk consists of three modules: (1) a water demand projection supply risk consists of three modules: (1) a water demand projection module to forecast future water module to forecast future water requirement scenarios; (2) a water management module to simulate requirement scenarios; (2) a water management module to simulate the reservoir operation and water the reservoir operation and water allocation under different scenarios; and (3) a water supply risk allocation under different scenarios; and (3) a water supply risk evaluation module to assess the evaluation module to assess the magnitude of water shortages
River are more likely scarcity to face toaround water supply riskand in intensity, suchtoas intensify in the future

Summary

Introduction

Water resources serve irreplaceable functions in human society and ecosystems. With the rapid social and economic development, ever-growing anthropogenic interventions to the hydrologic cycle have significantly strengthened the interaction between social and hydrologic systems [1,2]. It is well recognized that both domestic and productive water demand in most watersheds have been dramatically increased due to rapid population growth, along with accelerating agricultural and industrial expansions, all of which have led to intensifying competition and conflicts among different water use sectors [3,4]. Direct withdrawals of water from natural aquatic systems to satisfy domestic and productive demands have led to lack of water for. Human-induced land use and land cover changes as well as direct flow regulation, e.g., dam construction and inter-basin water diversion, have further distorted the natural flow regimes. Human activities can impact water resources in an indirect and long-term way, most of which are related to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions [1]. The recently released Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental

Methods

Results

Conclusion