Evaluating the reliability of microgrids consisting of renewable energy sources using stochastic scheduling based on the data-driven uncertainty set

Abstract

The paper addresses challenges arising from the unpredictable and probabilistic nature of wind speed and solar irradiance, leading to variable power production in renewable sources. Power imbalance issues in grids result from the difficulty in accurately estimating these variables. The study introduces an improved data-driven uncertainty set, utilizing a neural network trained with extensive historical data from a multi-microgrid system. This set efficiently identifies strong coupling and extracts characteristic scenarios, ensuring high reliability with a minimal number of scenes. The proposed probabilistic model, implemented in the coordination of pumped storage, wind, and solar power plants, incorporates energy limits and storage characteristics. A four-mode IEEE model for storage units allows quick response to system needs. Simulating storage unit states every hour, considering system load, output power, and energy limitations, optimizes power dispatch based on battery capacity. Additionally, the paper addresses the uncertainty in electric power demand in microgrids, proposing an improved data-driven uncertainty set obtained from a neural network. By eliminating unrealistic worst-case scenarios, the approach accurately captures system characteristics, maintaining high reliability while significantly reducing convergence time. The proposed uncertainty set is applied in a novel two-stage robust optimization dispatch model, transforming the optimization problem into a mixed-integer linear programming problem, and solving it using a column and constraint generation algorithm. Numerical case studies verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed approach in terms of economy and convergence performance compared to existing robust optimization methods.