Evaluating the President on Your Priorities: Issue Priorities, Policy Performance, and Presidential Approval, 1981–2016

Abstract

This article builds on the satisficing and attribution theories to propose a model of presidential approval where issue priorities moderate the association between presidents' policy performance evaluations and overall approval. The data include aggregate time‐series and cross‐sectional individual‐level data of presidential approval, presidential performance evaluations, and issue priorities from Reagan to Obama. The results demonstrate that people give more weight to the issues they prioritize, and therefore their evaluation of the president's performance on those issues matters more in their overall assessment of the president. The impact of issue priorities on approval varies by topic but is not further moderated by party affiliation. The results advance our understanding of the individual determinants of presidential approval and the role that issue priorities play in public opinion.