Evaluating the Predictive Validity of Graduate Management Admission Test Scores

Abstract

Admissions data and first-year grade point average (GPA) data from 11 graduate management schools were analyzed to evaluate the predictive validity of Graduate Management Admission Test® (GMAT®) scores and the extent to which predictive validity held across sex and race/ethnicity. The results indicated GMAT verbal and quantitative scores had substantial predictive validity, accounting for about 16% of the variance in graduate GPA beyond that predicted by undergraduate GPA. When these scores and undergraduate GPA were used together, they accounted for approximately 25% of the variation in first-year graduate GPA. Correcting correlations for restriction of range improved the predictive power. No statistical differences were found across examinee groups defined by race/ethnicity and sex, which suggests a lack of bias in these scores. The predictive utility of GMAT analytical writing scores was relatively low, accounting for only about 1% of the variation in graduate GPA, after accounting for undergraduate GPA and GMAT verbal and quantitative scores.