Evaluating the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks in the healthcare setting

Fatima Abdirizak,Gerardo Chowell,Rayleen Lewis

doi:10.1186/s12976-019-0112-6

Fatima Abdirizak, Gerardo Chowell + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-019-0112-6

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Abstract

BackgroundSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are two coronaviruses with demonstrated potential to generate significant nosocomial outbreaks. In particular, MERS continues to pose a significant threat in the Middle East since 2012. Currently, no licensed vaccine or drug treatment is available to treat patients infected with either coronavirus. However, there are some MERS vaccines in the preclinical stage of development. We sought to evaluate the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies for mitigating SARS and MERS outbreaks in healthcare settings using simple mathematical models and detailed historic transmission trees describing the progression of past nosocomial outbreaks of SARS and MERS.ResultsOur findings suggest that vaccination strategies targeting patients and healthcare workers, which have been disproportionately affected during past outbreaks, and assuming two vaccination coverage levels at 50 and 75% have the potential to avert nearly 50% or more of MERS or SARS cases.ConclusionOur modeling results informed by historic outbreak data for SARS and MERS suggest that vaccination strategies targeting patients could be an effective measure to mitigate and prevent outbreaks in the healthcare setting.

Highlights

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are two coronaviruses with demonstrated potential to generate significant nosocomial outbreaks
We aim to model the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies against hospital-based MERS and SARS transmission by using stochastic simulations and detailed transmission trees that describe the course of past MERS and SARS outbreaks in healthcare settings
We modeled the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies on nosocomial outbreaks of MERS and SARS using transmission trees describing the temporal progression of past coronavirus outbreaks (Fig. 1)

Summary

Introduction

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are two coronaviruses with demonstrated potential to generate significant nosocomial outbreaks. The 2003 outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory syndrome (SARS) were reported in 26 countries with a total of 8098 cases after 6 months [1, 2]. The index patient in the South Korea outbreak developed MERS associated symptoms after returning from the Middle East [7]. By the end of the South Korea outbreak, there were 186 MERS cases involving 17 hospitals generated from a Abdirizak et al Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling (2019) 16:16 single transmission chain stemming from the index patient [8, 9]

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