Evaluating the potential for growth in high-tech exports from Russia

Abstract

Subject. The article discusses exports of high-tech products manufactured by the Russian enterprises. Objectives. We outline an approach to evaluating the potential for high-tech exports. Methods. To identify the export potential, we referred to statistical data on the dynamics of high-tech exports and integral indicators of international trade, including the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). The export potential was quantified by assessing the Export Potential Indicator (EPI) with the International Trade Center (ITC) technique, which is based on modern statistical models, including the gravitational model of international trade. To interpret the results, we compared and adjusted then with respect to external macroeconomic factors and domestic national policy, including the analysis of the return on governmental funds invested in export. Results. We analyzed the current dynamics of high-tech exports and imports in Russia, scrutinized indicators of export and import of electrical machines, equipment and pharmaceuticals. We determined the principal trade partners of Russia for the above group of commodities. We evaluated Russia’s export potential for the above categories and spotlighted priority countries for further trade cooperation. The article indicates whether governmental support is sufficient for unfolding the export potential. Conclusions and Relevance. The way we suggest evaluating the potential for high-tech exports allows to determine the most promising sectors in terms of locked export potential, quantify the export potential and, finally, set up limitations or targets so that it would be possible to assess the adequacy of governmental programs and enhance them and choose export support actions.