Abstract
AbstractWe use historical analysis of solar wind plasma and coronal mass ejections to define the range of performance required for an ion analyzer for future space weather monitoring missions. We adopt the design of a top hat electrostatic analyzer, capable of measuring the plasma protons and constructing their three‐dimensional distribution functions. The design is based on previous heritage instruments and allows monitoring of extreme space weather events. In order to evaluate the future observations and their analysis methods, we model the expected response of the instrument in simulated plasma conditions. We evaluate a novel analysis method which can determine on board the plasma bulk properties, such as density, velocity, and temperature from the statistical moments of the observed velocity distribution functions of the plasma particles. We quantify the accuracy of the derived parameters critical for space weather purposes, by comparing them with the corresponding input solar wind parameters. In order to validate the instrument design, we examine the accuracy over the entire range of the input parameters we expect to observe in solar wind, from benign to extreme space weather conditions. We also use realistic parameters of fast solar wind streams and interplanetary coronal mass ejections as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft, to investigate the performance of the example instrument and the accuracy of the analysis. We discuss the achieved accuracy and its relevance to space weather monitoring concepts. We address sources of significant errors, and we demonstrate potential improvements by using a fitting analysis method to derive the results.
Highlights
Space weather represents a significant threat to national critical infrastructure and is recognized by both government and private industry at the national and international levels (e.g., Hapgood, 2012; Schrijver et al, 2015)
In order to validate the instrument design, we examine the accuracy over the entire range of the input parameters we expect to observe in solar wind, from benign to extreme space weather conditions
A space weather monitor at L5 focuses on the accurate characterization of the background solar wind, as the angular width of extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) do not often exceed ∼60◦ which is the minimum width required for an ICME at L5 to impact Earth
Summary
Space weather represents a significant threat to national critical infrastructure and is recognized by both government and private industry at the national and international levels (e.g., Hapgood, 2012; Schrijver et al, 2015). A recent estimate of economic impact has calculated that a Carrington-level space weather event could cause a risk to around $1.1 trillion of the global integrated gross domestic product (GDP), approximately one quarter of the 5 year baseline global GDP projection (Oughton et al, 2016). Magnetic reconnection in the dayside magnetopause enables solar wind plasma and energy to enter the magnetosphere. This energy is stored in the magnetotail, where it may be explosively released in the form of a substorm (e.g., Akasofu, 1964). Strong and prolonged driving of the magnetospheric system by the solar wind may lead to a geomagnetic storm, where the radiation belts become enhanced and energized
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