Meeting Report: European Commission’s Space‐Weather Awareness Dialogue

Abstract

Recognizing the need to raise awareness of the risk of severe space weather impacts on critical infrastructures, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), in collaboration with the Directorate-General Enterprise and Industry, organized the Space Weather Awareness Dialogue, a high-level event held in Brussels, Belgium, on 25-26 October 2011. The dialogue sought to highlight the potential effects of extreme space weather on technological infrastructures both in space and on the ground; to identify related scientific, operational, and policy challenges for disaster prevention, preparedness, and response; and to recommend actions that will reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. The event brought together about 70 representatives from European industry, government agencies, European Union (EU) institutions, and the space weather community. Officials from NASA and NOAA actively supported the event. The dialogue consisted of five panel sessions and a concluding session, with more than 30 panelists contributing during the 2-day program. Panelists from the German Aerospace Center (DLR), RAL Space in the United Kingdom, the French National Center for Space Studies (CNES), NASA Ames Research Center, and the University of Göttingen agreed that extreme space weather is a low-probability yet high-consequence event, one for which risk assessment is challenging but vital. With respect to preparedness, the panelists stated that the reliability of space weather forecasts with current models needs substantial improvement; they also stressed the need for a comprehensive evaluation of the potential threat to key infrastructures and for the development of adequate protective measures. To improve and validate these models, a concerted effort will be required, including the cataloging of incidents for postevent analysis. Participants highlighted the lack of operational procedures to rapidly secure infrastructures in case of a severe space weather warning, and they emphasized the importance of international cooperation for successfully tackling potential space weather hazards. Representatives from the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Satellite Operators’ Association, the European Space Industry Association, the German federal armed forces, and the JRC investigated the vulnerability of space-based infrastructures and services. It was indicated that current satellites have built-in redundancies to resist “normal” space weather and that the overall risks are believed to be manageable. Nonetheless, a better understanding of space weather effects would help to optimize designs and ensure more cost-effective satellite operations. Space weather events occasionally cause disruptions in satellite services, which can in turn affect other services and infrastructures and can even lead to cascading effects. In this context, the vulnerability of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) was mentioned, as was the fact that GNSS receivers are powerful tools for monitoring the effects of space weather on the ionosphere, which can severely affect satellite and wireless communications. The panelists called for improvements in modeling and validation, for the development of risk assessment capabilities comparable to existing approaches to space debris management, and for the establishment of standards for data exchange among stakeholders. Panelists representing the Swedish and U.K. power grids, aviation safety (European Aviation Safety Agency, NATS (En Route) Ltd.), the European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, and the Finnish Meteorological Institute described past episodes of minor service disruptions due to space weather and the current state of preparedness for “normal” space weather events. They observed, however, that ground-based infrastructure operators may be collectively unprepared to manage the effects of an extreme space weather event and that the potential impacts of such an event have not been adequately investigated. This situation undermines attempts to justify the financial investment required to improve preparedness on a large scale. In addition, some protective measures are available but depend on reliable and timely warning, which, to date, has been difficult to achieve for some space weather phenomena. The panelists emphasized that this vulnerability is increasing as a result of network design and growing interdependencies among key technological systems (e.g., energy, communications, transportation). Panelists from NOAA, the U.K.'s Met Office, the ESA, the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Solar Stormwatch agreed that the space weather forecasting capability is currently limited, requiring further research and model validation as well as more efficient data sharing. Such activities could be hampered by an insufficient understanding not only of the risks posed by space weather events but also of actions that could be taken to mitigate those risks. Conducting stress tests and emergency drills could help to identify modeling gaps, the vulnerabilities of infrastructures, and weaknesses in response procedures, and there was general agreement that early warning information must be timely, reliable, and useful. Industry guidelines on how to use this information effectively must also be provided. There was consensus on the pressing need to replace aging satellites that monitor space weather and to develop new operational systems, including specifically designed satellites and instruments. Experts in risk management and risk governance from insurers (Swiss Re, Atrium Space Insurance Consortium), Eurocontrol, and national and EU civil protection authorities all agreed that successful management of space weather risks will require a multidisciplinary international effort from all stakeholders (scientists, engineers, operators, policy makers). Ist was suggested that building a generic risk assessment framework applicable to several risk domains could avoid impossible risk trade-off situations in the absence of resources. Emergency drills could help to raise awareness and test institutional emergency procedures. From an insurance point of view, there is a need to identify worst-case scenarios for exposure assessment, as the economic stakes are high and cumulative losses have the potential to be ruinous. The participants indicated the need for the European Commission (EC) to facilitate a more permanent discussion on the space weather threat that would include all stakeholders. The EC is well positioned to take on this challenge because it maintains the JRC as its own independent science service, and it can drive EU policy development and implementation (as it has, for example, with the European Critical Infrastructure Directive). Consequently, the JRC will continue and increase its coordinating efforts and scientific activities (such as ionospheric scintillation monitoring and space weather impact assessment of critical infrastructures). Moreover, the JRC has recommended the establishment of a space weather agenda in which independent experts define the priorities for securing space- and ground-based infrastructures and for mitigating the consequences of space weather-triggered infrastructure failures or service disruptions. The goals of this agenda are to identify vulnerabilities, improve preparedness, and address the concerns of all stakeholders: the scientific community, infrastructure manufacturers and operators, crisis managers, and policy makers. The JRC will pursue this agenda in collaboration with all key partners from the Space Weather Awareness Dialogue. A full report on this meeting is available at http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/the-space-weather-awareness-dialogue-pbLBNA25016/, and the event Web site can be accessed at http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php/Space-Weather-Awareness-Dialogue/710/0/. Elisabeth Krausmann is a physicist and senior scientific officer with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, in Ispra, Italy, where she works on the impact of natural hazards on critical infrastructures. She is also the JRC's point of contact for space weather. Volker Bothmer is a research scientist at the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen, where he leads the university's solar, heliospheric, and space weather research group. He is coordinator of the EU FP7 space weather project AFFECTS (www.affects-fp7.eu http://www.affects-fp7.eu) and project lead of German contributions to the NASA STEREO and Solar Probe Plus missions.