Abstract
Water scarcity problems are becoming increasingly common due to higher water demand, urbanization, economic development and climatic variability. Policies and measures based on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) are often advocated to tackle the problems of competing demands and conflicts among stakeholders. Demand management measures as part of the IWRM package are expected to offset the increased demands on water resources caused by economic growth. However, even if IWRM-based policies are in place, the potential impacts of demand management are seldom quantified while formulating water policies or development plans. To address this, we conducted scenario analysis using Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP21) in a case study from the Awash Basin in Ethiopia. We show that ambitious irrigation expansion plans to combat food insecurity will lead to overexploitation of water resources with increasing inequity between smallholders and commercial farmers. Demand management measures proposed by water users are insufficient to offset these consequences. Potential demand measures that are embedded in the IWRM-based policies alone are also insufficient. While water policies emphasize IWRM principles but do not indicate how to properly implement them, economic development plans are often launched without adequately considering equity and environment, two of the three pillars of IWRM. This scenario analysis shows the importance of quantitative information in IWRM formulation and monitoring.
Highlights
Global freshwater use has increased about six-fold in the past century alone [1,2,3]
The Awash River Basin is the most utilized basin of Ethiopia, with most of its surface water resources abstracted for multiple uses at some points over the river course
Upper Awash Basin by 70% is expected to result in about 206 × 106 m3 /year of unmet demand by 2040
Summary
Global freshwater use has increased about six-fold in the past century alone [1,2,3]. Rapid population growth, changing living standards and consumption patterns, and rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture are among the major driving forces for the increased demand for water [4,5,6]. Several major rivers in many regions of the world, including the Indus and Yellow in Asia, Rio Grande and Colorado in the United States and Northern Mexico, and Murray-Darling in Australia no longer reach the sea year-round as an increasing share of their water are claimed for multiple uses [9,10,11]. Sea as the population relying on the river for survival is increasing at an alarming rate [12,13].
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