Evaluating the impact of function density distribution on metro passenger flows

Abstract

Introduction. The distribution of residential and business functions density in relation to walking distances to metro stations was considered to determine their relationship with annual metro passenger flows. The aim of the study was to identify common dependencies typical for regional cities, including Novosibirsk, Ekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Samara. Understanding dependencies that determine metro passenger flows will help to identify optimal strategies for development of offstreet transport in regional cities.
 
 Materials and methods. Open source data were used. Data on annual passenger metro traffic were provided by metro operators and the International Metro Association. The method of regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship. The information was prepared and visualized using QGIS and Python.
 
 Results. A positive correlation was identified between the density of residential areas and annual metro passenger flows as a result of the total evaluation of all cities. When evaluating the business function, the authors found that the greatest concentration of the number of corporate entities in the cities was focused in their administrative centres, or central business districts. A negative correlation between the average distance from all metro stations to administrative centres of cities (ACC), railway stations and annual metro passenger traffic was identified. Multiregression analysis showed that in all cities annual metro passenger flows were 69–90 % determined by the density of residential areas within walking distance of metro stations and the average distance from metro stations to ACC and the railway station. Independent variables are not multicollinear with each other.
 
 Conclusions. A strong dependence between annual metro passenger flows and residential or business functions was obtained. These results describe the dependence characteristic of all regional cities that have metros. This information can be used to evaluate the prospects for the development of offstreet transport in regional cities of Russia in the process of updating their master plans. The direction for further research is to evaluate the contribution of the residential function to metro passenger flows separately for each radius of walking distance of stations.