Evaluating the impact of changes in human capital structure on Russia's economic growth dynamics

Abstract

Subject. The article explores the impact of changes in the educational structure of the employed population on the dynamics of economic growth. Objectives. The purpose is to evaluate the impact of changes in the share of employed persons, having secondary vocational and higher education, and researchers with academic degree on the growth rates of the Russian economy. Methods. The study employs the regression analysis of panel data of Russian regions, the specification with a quadratic dependence of economic growth rates on the share of employed persons, having the higher education and secondary vocational education. A fixed-effects model is used to analyze the short-term effects, the sustainability of results, and long-term effects, using the pool models and random effects models. Results. The increase in the share of researchers with academic degree has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, but only if adequate R&D funding is provided. The increase in the share of employed persons with higher education up to thirty percent is accompanied by an increase in the growth rate of real GRP in the long run, however, further expansion of higher education has no positive effect on economic growth. Conclusions. A powerful form of personnel training for Russian high-tech companies is a special model of ‘industrial postgraduate training’, which involves the collaboration of universities with industrial partners.