Abstract
Recent climate change has brought about irregular rainfall patterns along with an increased frequency of heavy rainfall, and flood damage in Korea is increasing accordingly. The increased rainfall amount and intensity during the rainy season lead to flood damage on a massive scale every year in Korea. In order to reduce such flood damage and secure the stability of hydraulic structures, evaluation of hydrologic risk corresponding to design floods is necessary. As Korea’s current climate change scenarios are generally applied to mid-sized watersheds, there is no practical application method to calculate the hydrologic risk of local floods corresponding to various future climate change scenarios. Using the design flood prediction model, this study evaluated the hydrologic risks of n-year floods according to 13 climate change scenarios. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario resulted in the 100-year floods increasing 134.56% on average, and 132.30% in the Han River, 132.81% in the Nakdong River, 142.42% in the Gum River, and 135.47% in the Seomjin-Youngsan River basin, compared with the RCP 4.5. The 100-year floods at the end of the 21st century increased by +3% and +13% according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The corresponding hydrologic flood risk increased by 0.53% and 8.68% on average according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared with the current level of hydrologic risk of a 100-year flood.
Highlights
Published: 29 June 2021Over the years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has used a variety of climate change scenarios, ranging from simple scenarios in the early days to representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in its Fifth Assessment Report, published in 2014, to assess future prospects of global warming and its effects, adaptation, and mitigation [1]
N-year floods were calculated for ungauged watersheds using the machine learning-based design flood prediction model we developed previously [16], and risk analysis for various climate change scenarios was performed to evaluate the change in the hydrologic risk of n-year floods
Design Floods According to Various Climate Change Scenarios
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has used a variety of climate change scenarios, ranging from simple scenarios in the early days to representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in its Fifth Assessment Report, published in 2014, to assess future prospects of global warming and its effects, adaptation, and mitigation [1]. Has estimated the rate of rainfall increase due to future climate change, and determined disaster mitigation performance targets by region These regional targets relate to the current design practice of hydraulic structures such as dam spillway, sewer pipes, stormwater detention, and reservoirs. In the comprehensive flood management plan of a large river basin, the design precipitation is calculated as a factor for the possible damage when setting the flood control area zone. These results can be used for determining the flood control safety of each river as the basic data in establishing flood prevention plans. Our purpose was to understand how Korea’s greenhouse gas reduction policy, as reflected in various climate change scenarios, affects the hydrologic risk of flood in mid-sized basins in South Korea
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