Evaluating the effect of the SPI and SPEI methods on drought monitoring over Turkey

Abstract

Drought indices are one of the most widely used methods for drought monitoring because they are easy to apply and interpret. The two most widely used drought index methods are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, using the precipitation parameter as input, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) method, which uses the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) values addition to precipitation. The primary goal of this study is to compare the two methods for determining drought characteristics in different climatic and geographical features in Turkey. The drought characteristics are calculated using meteorological data between 1970 and 2021 for 199 synoptic observation stations in seven geographical regions of Turkey with SPI and SPEI methods for the 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. The study's findings indicate that while the correlation coefficient (CC) between the two indices is generally high (ranging from 0.81 to 0.93, depending on the region and time scale), it is lower in regions with a low Aridity Index (AI) value, particularly for the 3-month time scale. For the 6- and 12-month time scales, no relationship is observed between AI and CC. Additionally, SPEI detected a higher occurrence percentage of moderate and severe droughts across all geographical regions (with an increase of up to 15 % compared to SPI), while SPI observed higher percentages of extreme droughts. The study results conclude that SPI and SPEI methods demonstrate significant differences in detecting certain drought characteristics after the 1990s, underscoring the necessity to consider temperature variations in drought monitoring, particularly in the context of ongoing climate change.