Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Capital Expenditure of Federal Government in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the effect of oil price volatility on federal government capital expenditure in Nigeria for the period 1993 to 2022 using secondary data from relevant government agencies. The study specifically examine the impact of Brent UK crude oil price volatility, OPEC spot rate crude oil volatility and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price volatility controlling the disruptions of oil subsidy, corruption and inflation on capital expenditure. The research employed an ex-post facto research design to produce results via Bounds test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag regression test. The long run estimate of the model report that Brent UK crude oil price volatility, OPEC spot rate crude oil volatility and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price volatility failed to report significant effect on the federal government capital expenditure in Nigeria. This shows that the oil price volatility is a short run phenomenon, that will fade out in short period, hence the reason for the high speed of adjustment of the error correction term. There is need for federal government in Nigeria to continually monitor crude oil international price and negotiate with OPEC on production output and quota. There is also need to monitor federal government’s capital expenditure pattern and revenues in critical revenue generating agencies. Federal Government should remain committed to sustaining fiscal adjustments by creating fiscal space for capital and infrastructural development.