Evaluating the dynamic effects of mitigation instruments on CO2 emissions in China's nonferrous metal industry: A vector autoregression analysis

Abstract

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China's nonferrous metal industry is important for reaching China's ambitious goals for carbon peaking and neutrality. Prior research identified several carbon abatement instruments for the industry. However, the dynamic influence of different mechanisms on CO2 emissions in the industry remains unclear, and few studies have researched CO2 emission reductions in two nonferrous metal related industrial subsectors: nonferrous metal ore mining and nonferrous metal smelting. This research evaluated the dynamic effect of abatement instruments on the CO2 emissions in these two subsectors. The research discovered the factors that are highly linked with CO2 emissions by using an enhanced Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model. The dynamic influence of these factors on CO2 emissions in the two subsectors was investigated using a vector autoregressive model. Findings show that in the two subsectors, labour productivity and industrial value-added are the most important factors explaining CO2 changes. The two variables have a negative long-term effect on CO2 emissions in the nonferrous metal ores mining, and increase CO2 emissions in the smelting of nonferrous metals. Improving energy efficiency in the nonferrous metal smelting industry decreases the CO2 emissions only in the short term. In all sectors, lowering the electrical carbon emission factors and changing the energy structure using different techniques are expected to help reduce long-term CO2 emissions. These results are critical for the Chinese government in creating long- and short-term energy plans for the nonferrous metal sector.