Abstract
Soybean rust (SBR), caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi (Sydow & Sydow), has become a serious issue in Brazil. As Brazil is one of the largest soybean-producing and exporting countries in the world, a considerable decrease in soybean production due to SBR would have a significant impact on the global soybean market. SBR-resistant cultivars have been developed to prevent a decrease in soybean production. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of SBR-resistant cultivars on soybean production and the soybean market in Brazil using a supply and demand model. This model consists of functions of yield, cultivated area, exports, and stock changes of soybean and soybean products, demand for soybean products, and price linkages. Five scenarios were simulated to evaluate the economic impact of adopting SBR-resistant cultivars as follows: One without SBR infection, two with serious production losses due to SBR in the south and southeast regions and all the states of Brazil, and two with the adoption of SBR-resistant cultivars in the south and south-east regions and all the states of Brazil. Our simulations suggest that adopting SBR-resistant cultivars reduces the cost of controlling SBR by approximately half and is essential for sustainable soybean production and a stable global soybean market.
Highlights
Soybean rust (SBR) caused by the harmful fungus, Phakopsora pachyrhizi (Sydow & Sydow), is one of the most serious threats to stable soybean production in Brazil [1,2]
We evaluated the economic impacts of SBR on soybean production and the adoption of SBR-resistant cultivars by comparing Scenarios 3 and 5
Soybean oil and cake production will fall. This would have a significant impact on the global soybean and soybean products market, as Brazil is a major player in this sector
Summary
Soybean rust (SBR) caused by the harmful fungus, Phakopsora pachyrhizi (Sydow & Sydow), is one of the most serious threats to stable soybean production in Brazil [1,2]. Yield losses of over 80% have been reported during times when environmental conditions are optimal for the growth of this pathogen [3,4]. In Brazil, SBR first occurred in the 2001/2002 crop year, spreading to almost all the soybean-producing states by the 2003/2004 crop year, following which fungicide was applied. SBR has proven to be difficult to control and the economic loss in the 2003/2004 crop year was 1.22 billion USD for grain loss and 2.08 billion USD for the cost of applying fungicide [5]. The cost of fungicide accounted for 7.09% of total production cost of soybeans in the 2016/2017 crop year [6], while the average production cost of Brazil in 2013/2014 was approximately twice as high as that in the USA and Argentina [7].
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