Evaluating spatial differences in the contributions of climate variability and human activity to runoff change in the Haihe River basin

Abstract

ABSTRACT Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff change has attracted widespread attention. However, very few researchers have used multiple methods to analyse the spatial differences in their relative contributions on the sub-basin scale. In this study, we used three main methods, multiregression, climate elasticity, and the Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L) hydrological model, to explore the spatial differences in the relative contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff change in the Jumahe River Basin (JRB). The results indicate that the annual mean runoff decreased significantly in the JRB and its three sub-basins during 1964–2015. The three methods produced similar estimates in the JRB, and human activities were the main reason for runoff reduction. The WEP-L model provides the most satisfactory results compared with the other two methods. The influence of human activity increased from upstream to downstream, whereas that of climate change decreased. These results can help to provide a basis for sustainable water resource management.