Runoff changes in the major river basins of China and their responses to potential driving forces

Abstract

Identifying the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes is scientifically essential for understanding hydrological processes and sustainable water resources management. This study selected 64 catchments located in the mainland of China to quantify the effects of different driving forces on runoff changes. Results showed that annual runoff in the Haihe river basin, Liaohe river basin, and Yellow river basin exhibited significantly decreasing trends from 1965 to 2018 (P < 0.05), whereas the Northwest river basin had positive trends in the annual runoff. Meanwhile, the Pettitt test method was applied to detect abrupt changes in annual runoff. Compared to the rivers in Southern China, the northern rivers had significant abrupt changes in annual runoff and mostly occurred in the 1990 s. The Choudhury-Yang equation based on the Budyko hypothesis was used to assess the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and the land surface (n) changes. The results showed that runoff was more sensitive to P and n, compared to ET0. Attribution analysis revealed that P was the dominant factor in the Northwest river basin, Southwest river basin, Yangtze river basin, Southeast river basin, and Pearl river basin, whereas the changes in n were responsible for runoff changes in the Liaohe river basin, Haihe river basin, Yellow river Basin, Songhuajiang river basin, and Huaihe river basin. The land surface changes (n) were resulted from vegetation restoration, urbanization expansion, construction of reservoirs/check dams, and surface water withdrawals, leading to significant changes in river runoff in recent years. The findings can provide good insight for water resources management across China.