Evaluating Quoddy Region archaeological site vulnerability to sea-level rise and erosion through the integration of geographic information system modeling and surveys

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km2 if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km2 under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km2 under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km2, if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km2. Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km2.A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.

Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

Implications, Planning, and Design Considerations for Rising Sea Levels at the Coast

Coastal paleogeography of the California–Oregon–Washington and Bering Sea continental shelves during the latest Pleistocene and Holocene: implications for the archaeological record

Appendix II: NPCC 2015 technical details.

Climate change poses great risks to archaeological heritage, especially in coastal regions. Preparing to mitigate these challenges requires detailed and accurate assessments of how coastal heritage sites will be impacted by sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, driven by increasingly severe storms in a warmer climate. However, inconsistency between modeled impacts of coastal erosion on archaeological sites and observed effects has thus far hindered our ability to accurately assess the vulnerability of sites. Modeling of coastal impacts has largely focused on medium-to-long term SLR, while observations of damage to sites have almost exclusively focused on the results of individual storm events. There is therefore a great need for desk-based modeling of the potential impacts of individual storm events to equip cultural heritage managers with the information they need to plan for and mitigate the impacts of storm surge in various future sea level scenarios. Here, we apply the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to estimate the risks that storm surge events pose to archaeological sites along the coast of the US State of Georgia in four different SLR scenarios. Our results, shared with cultural heritage managers in the Georgia Historic Preservation Division to facilitate prioritization, documentation, and mitigation efforts, demonstrate that over 4200 archaeological sites in Georgia alone are at risk of inundation and erosion from hurricanes, more than ten times the number of sites that were previously estimated to be at risk by 2100 accounting for SLR alone. We hope that this work encourages necessary action toward conserving coastal physical cultural heritage in Georgia and beyond.

Part I. Overview: 1. Climate and sea level change: a synthesis Part II. Data: 2. Mean sea level changes in the recent past 3. Recent global sea levels and land levels 4. Improving sea level data 5. Global absolute sea level: the Hawaiian and US Atlantic coast-Bermuda regional networks 6. Long-term changes in eustatic sea level Part III. Projections: 7. Future changes in global mean temperature and sea level 8. Possible future contributions to sea level change from small glaciers 9. Possible changes in the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and their effects on sea level 10. The Antarctic Peninsula contribution to future sea level rise 11. Model projections of CO2-induced equilibrium climate change 12. Observational data on the relationships between climatic change and the frequency and magnitude of severe tropical storms Part IV. Impacts and Case Studies: 13. Geographic information systems and future sea level rise 14. The storm surge problem and possible effects of sea level changes on coastal flooding in the Bay of Bengal 15. Geographical complexities of detailed impact assessment for the Ganges-Brahmaputra Meghna delta of Bangladesh 16. Possible impacts of, and adjustments to, sea level rise the cases of Bangladesh and Egypt 17. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal systems with special emphasis son the Mississippi River deltaic plain 18. Sea level rise: assessing the problems 19. Adjustment to greenhouse gas induced sea level rise on the Norfolk coast - a case study 20. What will happen to The Netherlands if sea level rise accelerates? 21. The vulnerability of the east coast of South America to sea level rise and possible adjustment strategies 22. Future sea level rise in Hong Kong and possible environmental effects Part V. Summaries and Recommendations: 23. Sea level changes 24. Severe tropical storms and storm surges 25. Regional effects of sea level rise.

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise. Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings. Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.

Onset of runaway fragmentation of salt marshes

Modeling the impact of sea level rise on endangered deer habitat

海平面上升对生态系统服务价值的影响及适应措施

Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

Estuarine systems are very sensitive environments to sea level rise as a consequence of climate changes, which can enhance seawater intrusion and affect multiple water uses. The seawater intrusion under sea level scenarios in an estuarine river by applying the one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model HEC-RAS 5.0.5 was studied. The study was carried out at the estuarine reach of Cubatao River, in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Considering sea level rise scenarios of ΔH = 0.25 m, 0.50 m, and 1.0 m combined with constant freshwater discharge conditions for Cubatao River (16 m3/s, mean annual discharge and 8 m3/s, dry season discharge), the model results showed that seawater intrusion moves significantly upstream the river in all cases and the maximum seawater intrusion length may reach 10 km in the worst scenario (ΔH = 1.0 m and 8 m3/s freshwater discharge), 70% higher than the current sea level and the mean discharge. At the local water abstraction point for urban supply, salinity concentration may reach 12 g/kg, making conventional water treatment unfeasible. Sea level rise may threaten water supply facilities and require water resource management solutions, such as water abstraction restricted times when salinity concentration is low; higher freshwater reservation; new water abstraction locations, farther the present ones; or higher water discharges in Cubatao River from a local hydroelectric power plant, which can cause water resource management conflicts.