Evaluating public sentiment towards transport policies: A causal analysis of the motorbike ban in Hanoi

Abstract

Controversial transport policies, such as the proposed ban on non-electric motorbikes in Hanoi, Vietnam, often challenge the status quo and spur resistance among road users. This paper aims to unpack the causal implications of the motorbike ban, with an emphasis on elucidating potential transformations in urban mobility patterns and public sentiment in Hanoi. The research methodology is rooted in an mixed-methods approach. It begins by applying Spatial Propensity Score Matching (SPSM) to a bespoke transport survey to mitigate geographical confounding in the identification of the ban’s causal effects on societal attitudes and behaviours. Subsequently, it applies Ordinal Logistic Regression to quantify the causal influences of diverse socio-economic and demographic factors on public opinion towards the motorbike ban. Together, these methods yield a robust analysis of the policy’s prospective impacts.Through this framework, the study provides insights into the key factors influencing individual’s opinion on controversial transport policies, such as the motorbike ban in Hanoi. Specifically, the approach reveals 4 key geographical insights into socioeconomic status, public transport perception, motorbike dependency, and automobile affinity among people in Hanoi.