Evaluating phase movement theory with the dramatis personae oftime:1923–1988

Abstract

Parsons and Bales maintain that the temporal organization of a group's activities is characterized by a periodic swing between internal and external imperatives. The phase hypothesis holds that at the societal level phases characterized by an emphasis on solving external problems will be accompanied by economic prosperity. Temporal organization is also characterized by adaptive upgrading in response to environmental demands and a concomitant secular trend, or increasingly external focus. To test these hypotheses, 3,209 roles featured on the cover of Time magazine from 1923 to 1988 were classified as either internal (educators, mass media, entertainers, athletes, celebrities, private interest group leaders, religious leaders, and labor leaders) or external (politicians, public interest group leaders, military, administrators, scientists, and foreigners). A Phase Index was determined by the proportion of external roles. The level of business activity was established by the Cleveland Trust Company's “America...