Evaluating maize growth models “CERES-Maize” and “IXIM-Maize” under elevated temperature conditions

Abstract

It would be preferable to use a reliable crop growth model for studies on climate change impact assessment. The objectives of this study was to evaluate simulation performance for two maize models, including CERES-Maize and IXIM models, included in the DSSAT model (version 4.6) in terms of phenology and yield. Two early maturing cultivars, Chalok#1 and Junda# 6, were grown under controlled environment in plastic houses at Suwon, Korea. Each cultivar, which was sown at four different date in 2013 and 2014, was subjected to four sets of temperature conditions including ambient (AT), AT+1.5°C, AT+3°C, and AT+5°C. In simulations of phenology under given conditions, the anthesis date and grain filling ratio were underestimated, especially when temperature was unusually high, e.g., in 2013. The maize models also had poor accuracy in grain yield, which resulted from the fact that these models had relatively large errors in simulation of kernel number and kernel weight under elevated temperature conditions. In addition, both models were not able to simulate the drastic decrease of kernel number due to heat stress around flowering periods. These results indicated that two maize models would need improvements in simulation of crop response to supra-optimal temperature before they would be used to assess the impact of the climate change on maize yield. This studies merits further study to improve algorithms in phenology simulation at supraoptimal temperature.