Abstract
Evaluating the historical contribution of the volume loss of ice to stream flow based on reconstructed volume changes through the Little Ice Age (LIA) can be directly related to the understanding of glacier-hydrology in the current epoch of rapid glacier loss that has disquieting implications for a water resource in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes. However, the accurate prediction of the future glacial meltwater availability for the developing regional Andean society needs more extensive quantitative estimation from long-term glacial meltwater of reconstructed glacial volume. Modeling the LIA paleoglaciers through the mid-19th century (with the most extensive recent period of mountain glacier expansion having occurred around 1850 AD) in different catchments of the Cordillera Blanca allows us to reconstruct glacier volume and its change from likely combinations of climatic control variables and time. We computed the rate and magnitude of centennial-scale glacier volume changes for glacier surfaces between the LIA and the modern era, as defined by 2011 Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 (GDEM V2) and 2008 Light Detection and Range (LiDAR) data. The model simulation showed good agreement with the observed geomorphic data and the volume and surface area (V-S) scaling remained within the 25% error range in the reconstructed simulation. Also, we employed a recently demonstrated approach (Baraër, M. et al.) to calculate meltwater contribution to glacierized catchment runoff. The results revealed multiple peaks of both mean annual and dry season discharge that have never been shown in previous research on the same mountain range.
Highlights
Glacier meltwater plays a vital role as a water resource for populations situated downstream of glaciated mountain ranges
Starting from the 2008 terminus achieved from 2008 polygons, the cellular automata model simulated until the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum for both Yanamarey Glacier (YAN) and Queshque main glacier (QUE) with an Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELAs) decrease of 1 m per year
We modeled the LIA maximum glaciers using a cellular automata automata (CA) model with 2008 Light Detection and Range (LiDAR)
Summary
Glacier meltwater plays a vital role as a water resource for populations situated downstream of glaciated mountain ranges. We employ a hydrological model [1] to reconstruct the long-term runoff from the reconstructed glacial mass changes from the LIA in the Cordillera Blanca, to assess the impact of glacial retreat on changes to historical trends in watershed discharge characteristics. No studies far have identified retreat conditions that could produce multiple peaks of hydrological response to glacier retreat over a longer, retrospective time series This experimental simulation to extend volume changes from the LIA maximum from a hydrological perspective enables us to describe the response of glaciers to recent climatic fluctuations and analyze the hydrological impact of meltwater on stream flow over the evolution of glaciers. Data andofMethod meltwater the watershed in the Santa River can provide 10 to 20% of the total annual discharge, possibly reaching as much as 40% of the total discharge during the dry season, despite only having
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