Evaluating dual exposure by using climate-conflict vulnerability index on the coastal districts of Sindh, Pakistan.

Abstract

Climate variability is widely recognized as a major concern, particularly in resource-scarce regions where it limits livelihood opportunities by putting additional strain on already depleting resources, resulting in human insecurity and conflicts. Some vulnerability assessments have created a nexus between climate variability and conflicts. The Climate-Water Conflict Vulnerability Index (CWCVI) and the Climate-Agriculture Conflict Vulnerability Index (CACVI) are applied as a tool for exploring the climate and conflict interactions, as well as contrasting the vulnerabilities of the coastal districts of Badin, Thatta, and Sujawal. The analysis incorporates a dual exposure of communities in the form of climate variability and conflict over water and agricultural resources. The study finds that aggression and feelings of insecurity about depleting resources are the main contributing indicators of climate-conflict vulnerability in the coastal districts. District Sujawal showed higher vulnerability in adaptive capacity as compared to the other districts due to poor infrastructure and high dependency on natural resources. However, the district of Badin demonstrated high vulnerability in terms of sensitivity and its exposure to conflicts over agricultural resources is high. The overall CWCVI and CACVI scores were higher in Badin and Thatta, respectively. This study identifies a number of indicators that can be used to improve the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce conflict vulnerability in future policy directions and resource planning.