Evaluating climate change scenarios in the white volta basin: A statistical bias-correction approach

Abstract

This study provides a critical assessment of future climate scenarios in the White Volta Basin (WVB), an area heavily reliant on groundwater resources. With monthly model results for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and 5–8.5), seven (7) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with spatial resolution ranging from 1.125° × 2.8° were assessed. The study also considered, three 30-year time intervals, 1971–2013 for the Baseline (historical) climate, the 2020s (2020–2040) 2050s (2041–2070), and the 2080s (2071–2075) for the future climate scenarios. The Climate Change for Watershed Modeling (CMhyd) software was used for bias correction of these models, with observational data sourced from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP CFSR) and 12 gridded climate stations. The bias-corrected models validated using R2, NSE, RMSE, PBIAS, and additional metrics, demonstrated good calibration results compared to observed data. Precipitation ensembles showed 97–99% R2, 94–99% NSE, 70–485 mm RMSE, and -9-5% PBIAS. Maximum and minimum bias corrected temperatures performance varied from 95 to 99% R2, 92–99% NSE, 0.01–0.07 RMSE, and 0.01–0.23 PBIAS, Overall, precipitation levels are expected to decline for SSP2-4.5, while under SSP5-8.5 are expected to increase until the 2080s across all scenarios in comparison to the baseline period. Maximum temperature will be considerably high under SSP5-8.5, with an estimated increase of around 4.3 °C/year in comparison to the reference period. The monthly average variation in the maximum temperature ranges from 0.62 to 2.43 0Cunder the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These findings reveal the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, groundwater recharge, and crucial information for the development of Ghana's National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Thus, emphasizing the need for comprehensive adaptation strategies to mitigate the climate change impact on water resources and ecosystem services.