Evaluating and Analyzing Urban Renewal and Transformation Potential Based on AET Models: A Case Study of Shenzhen City

Abstract

With the development of the urban economy and population growth, the demand for urban construction land continues to rise. Addressing the challenges of land protection and ecological security calls for the exploration of new approaches. This study emphasizes a sustainable solution by emphasizing in-depth exploration of existing land resources, moving away from the traditional “expanding the pie” model of urban development. Specifically, we selected land parcels in Shenzhen city from 2010 to 2020 that met the criteria for urban renewal and transformation as evaluation units, further categorized into residential, industrial, and commercial land for transformation. From multiple perspectives, including geological conditions, building conditions, agglomeration, social factors, and the degree of completeness of public facilities, we constructed an evaluation system comprising 23 indicators to quantify the potential for urban renewal of these units. Through the AET (AHP-EWM-TOPSIS) model analysis for assessing the potential of urban renewal and transformation, we classified the transformation parcels into different potential levels based on the optimized solutions from the model. Finally, we validated the results using the planned land units implemented in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020, achieving an accuracy of 81% in matching the spatial distribution of potential levels with the actual situation. The comprehensive evaluation results from the model provide a basis for optimizing and enhancing sustainable urban renewal. This research contributes to the formulation of informed decisions and strategic urban development planning, enabling a more cautious and resource-efficient approach to address the challenges of urban expansion.