Evaluating aerial duel ability of football players using height-adjusted Elo rating model

Abstract

ABSTRACT Football players’ aerial duel ability has been typically evaluated based on the “aerial duel success rate (success/attempt)”. However, sole reliance on this indicator implies excluding other factors like the opponent’s aerial duel ability and height. This makes the evaluation of a player’s true ability difficult. The Elo rating system is an alternative method that addresses such exclusion. This study analysed a player’s aerial duel ability more accurately using an Elo model adjusted by height. All players from all matches in the K League 1 over the 3 seasons were analysed. The player rankings for aerial duel ability calculated using the Elo rating system showed significant differences compared to the rankings based on aerial duel success rates used in previous studies e.g. the player ranked 1st in Elo was 3rd in aerial duel success rate, the 2nd and the 3rd players remained 21st and 54th. These results serve as valuable information for analysing players’ abilities and understanding team tactics in the applied field. These will also be crucial for player evaluation while scouting.