Evaluate the Impact on the Chinese Air-traffic after the Opening of the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

After the 3 years control of COVID-19 pandemic, all aspects of control were opened, it has many impacts in every regard. The essay uses the ARIMA model to predict the turnover and the stocking price of the aviation after the opening of the pandemic, then use these testing data to compare with the actual data, so that the difference between these data can illustrates the impact of the opening on the airline industry. The main findings are that this policy would cause the stock price boost greatly, then fluctuated, came back to the normal trend and even declined. The meaning of this research is to evaluate the counterplan and prospect of the airline industry in the future using the actual data to enhance the accuracy. There are some advice for the policy makers, investors, for policy makers and controllers, for example, the investors should sell their stock in short term after the open of the pandemic since the stock price will experience a dramatically decrease. The controllers should lead the investors to avoid the excessive invests which will disturb the aviation stock market.