Evacuation planning for persons with mobility needs: A combined optimization and traffic microsimulation modelling approach

Abstract

This study presents a framework of optimization and traffic microsimulation modelling that account for a mass evacuation of persons with mobility needs. The study optimizes emergency vehicle and destination allocation and implements an emergency evacuation route within the traffic microsimulation model. The emergency vehicle and destination allocation follow an integer programming optimization approach within a mathematical programming language modelling system. This study tests two evacuation scenarios that consider emergency vehicle operations with and without a dedicated route for the evacuation of five hundred and twelve persons, requiring mobility assistance from six hospitals and nursing homes. Additionally, the evacuation modelling framework considers collision risks in assessing evacuation process, particularly, how it affects evacuation of this group of vulnerable population. Optimization results indicate that this group can be evacuated by ninety emergency vehicles, and it takes 19.5 h for an optimal allocation of emergency vehicles. Traffic simulation results suggest that it takes 21 h to evacuate all persons with mobility needs using ninety emergency vehicles. The study found that travel time along the evacuation route is reduced by 32.31% compared to a sceanrio without a dedicated route. Results also indicate that implementing a dedicated evacuation route yields a reduction of 6 min and 25.2 min in average and the maximum trip time for emergency vehicles, respectively. On the other hand, 68% of emergency vehicles make 0.5–3.5 fewer tour to a case without the collision, leading to an incomplete evacuation (72.2%). This research will provide emergency professionals with insights into the challenges associated with the evacuation of persons with mobility needs and help develop proactive evacuation plans to accommodate the special requirements of the vulnerable population.