EV-share development: speed vs interest to adopt

Abstract

Transport is a notable source of greenhouse gas emissions. While the mobility habits of people have an effect on a large share of the emissions, the development of the car fleet also plays a major role. In this study, Finnish SALAMA-model is used to calculate nine different scenarios, examining how changes in both the car fleet turnover speed and interest towards electric vehicles (EVs) affect the amount of EVs and total emissions from the passenger cars in Finland up to the year 2040. With the baseline scenario (normal interest and car fleet turnover speed) 28% of cars in use would be EVs (total of PHEVs and BEVs) by 2030. In contrast, scenario with higher interest and faster turnover suggest that nearly half of all cars could be EVs. When focusing on CO2 emissions, only the scenario with the fastest turnover speed with high interest aligns with the Finnish targets for 2030. Thus, car fleet development is only a part of the emission reduction, and other measures are also needed. Based on the results, it should be noted that even though many current and past policies are often focused on increasing interest towards EVs, any solutions driving faster turnover of the car fleet would also significantly impact emission reduction.