Abstract
The transport sector, in particular road transport, is a major consumer of energy and a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to climate change. There is increasing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars (e.g. in the EU, the Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 sets the limit of CO2 emissions of new passenger cars to 95 g of CO2 from 2020 [1]). Today, the global vehicle stock has more than 1 billion units and relies almost entirely on oil-based energy. According to various projections, the global vehicle fleet could double or even triple by 2050. The energy and environmental implications of such increase would not be negligible. In this context, it is argued that the electrification of the global vehicle fleet emerges as a desirable goal. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to help meet key energy and environmental goals, leading to a decrease in oil imports, an increase in energy independency and to a decrease in CO2 emissions. This paper focuses on the EV market penetration in key OECD countries as well as in China and India, considering various vehicle technologies for passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs). In particular, the paper investigates the impacts of EVs on oil demand and CO2 emissions in the countries of interest under various scenarios until 2050. For this purpose, a System Dynamics (SD) model is developed and the results of various simulations assessed. The output of the model includes possible future market shares of EVs as well as their specific energy and environmental impacts. Our results show to what extent EVs can potentially contribute to reduce oil dependency and CO2 emissions in the countries analysed beyond 2030.
Highlights
The transport sector is a major consumer of energy and a major source of emissions
The proposed outline for the remaining part of the paper is the following: Section 2 provides a brief overview of Electric vehicles (EVs), focuses on the key concept of “total cost of ownership” and includes some declared targets for EVs; in Section 3, the method applied in this study is presented; Section 4 shows the model output for each individual country; in Section 5, conclusions are drawn from our results
Our results show that EVs contribute to restrain oil demand and CO2 emissions in the selected countries by 2030, and to significantly reduce them thereafter
Summary
In 2006, transport accounted for 27.5% of the world total final energy consumption and for 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions and 13% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [2]. Road transport (especially road passenger) accounted for 72.9% and 74% of total transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively [3]. In 2010, there were more than 1 billion vehicles on the world‟s roads [4], most of them running on oil-based fuels [5]. The oil needed to fuel road transport has to be imported in many countries, which represents a considerable. EVS27 International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium economic cost and a challenge for their energy security. Excessive car exhaust CO2 emissions contribute to global warming
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