Abstract

BackgroundMosquito population dynamics are driven by large-scale (e.g. climatological) and small-scale (e.g. ecological) factors. While these factors are known to independently influence mosquito populations, it remains uncertain how drivers that simultaneously operate under natural conditions interact to influence mosquito populations. We, therefore, developed a well-controlled outdoor experiment to assess the interactive effects of two ecological drivers, predation and nutrient availability, on mosquito life history traits under multiple temperature regimes.MethodsWe conducted a temperature-controlled mesocosm experiment in Kruger National Park, South Africa, with the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti. We investigated how larval survival, emergence and development rates were impacted by the presence of a locally-common invertebrate predator (backswimmers Anisops varia Fieber (Notonectidae: Hemiptera), nutrient availability (oligotrophic vs eutrophic, reflecting field conditions), water temperature, and interactions between each driver.ResultsWe observed that the effects of predation and temperature both depended on eutrophication. Predation caused lower adult emergence in oligotrophic conditions but higher emergence under eutrophic conditions. Higher temperatures caused faster larval development rates in eutrophic but not oligotrophic conditions.ConclusionsOur study shows that ecological bottom-up and top-down drivers strongly and interactively govern mosquito life history traits for Ae. aegypti populations. Specifically, we show that eutrophication can inversely affect predator–prey interactions and mediate the effect of temperature on mosquito survival and development rates. Hence, our results suggest that nutrient pollution can overrule biological constraints on natural mosquito populations and highlights the importance of studying multiple factors.

Highlights

  • Mosquito population dynamics are driven by large-scale and small-scale factors

  • It is widely acknowledged that mosquito population dynamics are driven by large-scale climatological conditions [5, 6], there is a growing awareness that mosquitoes inhabit complex ecosystems and are, exposed to a myriad of biotic factors that influence the success of mosquitopopulations [7,8,9,10]

  • Temperature was significantly different among temperature treatments (Fig. 1b) and significant effects were observed for some abiotic factors

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Summary

Introduction

Mosquito population dynamics are driven by large-scale (e.g. climatological) and small-scale (e.g. ecological) factors. Accurate information on mosquito population dynamics has been shown to improve predictions of the timing, likelihood, or location of mosquito borne-disease outbreaks [2, 3, 11] It is, crucial to understand both the local ecological context and largescale climatological conditions in which disease transmitting mosquito vector populations thrive. Interactions between multiple ecological drivers can modify the strength and the direction of outcomes at the population or community level [19, 20] and ecological change is often associated with shifts in more than one potential driver Taken together, this implies that it is essential to study multiple biotic and abiotic drivers of mosquito populations simultaneously under the highest possible degree of natural realism

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