EUROPE’S ENERGY SECURITY AMID RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR: NAVIGATING THE FUTURE BY EMPLOYING MODIFIED SCENARIO BUILDING TECHNIQUE

Abstract

The Russo-Ukraine War has exposed the vulnerabilities of Western Europe’s energy security, which has traditionally relied heavily on Russian energy supplies. This excessive dependency has resulted in energy shortages, price volatility, and inflation due to continuing disruptions. By employing the scenario-building technique, this study offers insight into the implications of the War on energy security, strategic choices, and policy considerations for stakeholders as a result of scenario building. The scenario building technique used in this study is modified version that has been modelled by the author by totally overhauling the conventional model in practice. The study projects potential scenarios by leveraging the modified scenarios building and development technique. The findings signify the necessity of thoroughly reevaluating Europe’s stance towards the conflict, identifying looming threats, strategic adaptability regarding the diversification of energy resources and routes, and creating a collaborative European Union framework to articulate collective responses to mitigate the risks. Finally, the results are presented in four major probable future scenarios, each displaying unique challenges and strategic choices. Concluding with geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic triggers and their graduation on impact and probability indices, offer a whole sum view to the stakeholders of the Western Europe to mitigate threats to their energy security amid ongoing Russo-Ukraine War. In a nutshell, while advancing the discourse on Western Europe’s energy security, the study offers a nuanced analysis and detailed strategic roadmap for the future of energy, where these scenarios underscore the critical need to pacify the conflict, anticipate the long-term risks and their mitigation, diversify the energy sources, enhance energy efficiency, formulate resilient energy policies, the collaborative framework within the European Union, collective energy purchase and storage mechanism.