European energy politics after Ukraine: The road ahead

Abstract

By invading Ukraine and weaponizing its gas supplies to Europe, Russia has made natural gas what renewable energy used to be: unreliable and expensive. In this perspective, we use the paradigm shift concept developed by Florian Kern et al. to unpack the possible implications of the war for the European energy politics. We argue that the war and the uncertainty around natural gas it has produced will play a major role in the future development of the European energy transition. Reducing energy vulnerability and faster decarbonization will be pursued as the main policy goals, probably at the expense of the further development of the EU integrated energy market under its current design. We may also see more Europe and more state in the energy affairs as solutions to the crisis require levels of coordination and resource mobilization that individual member states or private actors cannot provide. We conclude that the EU has the resources, knowledge base, and determination to turn the crisis into an opportunity. If uncoordinated or mismanaged, however, the European response might make the matters even worse, triggering a political crisis and eventually also a crisis of legitimacy.