EU-Russia Energy Diplomacy: 2010 and Beyond?

Abstract

There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU’s most important energy supplier. Other concerned parties include candidates for EU membership and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union’s energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states. Moscow poses an energy challenge by applying this income-based economic relationship as a tool of soft power towards individual member states as well as toward the European Union as a collective body. The last supply cuts in 2009 intensified questions about the EU’s energy dependency on Russia. From being more energy independent in the past, “old” EU members such as Germany and Italy have become increasingly reliant on Russian imports. At the same time, due to their almost complete dependence on Russian gas supply that is provided through existing pipelines, some “new” EU members are striving to diversify their suppliers, routes, or both. Fragmentation of the gas market, competition for preferential deals, and the lack of a coherent energy policy are making the EU more vulnerable to supply reductions. This risk is rising in strategic importance for security practitioners and policy makers in Europe, and requires a long-term strategy beyond one government’s limited political mandate. The focus of this essay is EU-Russia energy diplomacy, viewed through the prism of the two main pipeline projects for gas supply: Nabucco and South Stream. The Nabucco project, backed by the EU and U.S., challenges both Russia’s strategic interests in Europe and in its near abroad. In response, Moscow introduced two major pipeline projects aimed at diversifying supply routes to Europe: Nord Stream and South Stream. The first section of the article explains where we are in 2010, suggests that the two parties are interdependent in their energy relations, explores the approaches they apply,