Abstract
The efficacy of the triangle of economic interdependence, international organization, and democracy in constructing a zone of perpetual peace in Europe has led many commentators and practitioners to consider the viability of a similar liberal internationalist project in Northeast Asia. In contrast, this article contends that far from Northeast Asia being ripe for resolution in accordance with the liberal principles which brought peace to Europe in the second half of the twentieth century, the underlying strategic and security structures bear closer resemblance to those of Europe in the first half of the last century when liberal internationalism experienced a twenty-year crisis and the region was wracked by great power competition and confrontation. Nevertheless, there remains hope for the evolution of a zone of peace in Northeast Asia, but one based on rational and socially constructed pragmatic instruments rather than those of the liberal paradigm.
Highlights
Following the successful example of Europe, liberal optimism has spilled into Northeast Asian analysis with hope for the evolution of a liberal virtuous triangle of democratization, economic interdependence, and international organization.[1]
Far from reverting to the sort of beggar-thy-neighbor policies which exacerbated Europe’s twenty year crisis, the United States, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and even Russia have embarked on cooperative financial stimulus plans, and international financial organization oversight culminating in agreement at the April 2009 meeting of the G-20 economies which has been called a London Consensus.[31]
Contrary to the hopes of liberal optimists, economic interdependence, international organization, and democratic consolidation have not led to the evolution of a zone of peace in Northeast Asia similar to that in Europe, nor, due to the limited progress made on all three sides of the virtuous triangle in the region, are they likely to in the short or even medium term
Summary
Following the successful example of Europe, liberal optimism has spilled into Northeast Asian analysis with hope for the evolution of a liberal virtuous triangle of democratization, economic interdependence, and international organization.[1] Yet the international environment in contemporary Northeast Asia bears a closer resemblance to that of the European interwar twenty-year crisis of liberalism rather than that of the post-second world war integration project in Europe, and again, at least in this region, such optimism may be seen as premature. This article addresses first, the extent to which one should be optimistic about the liberal internationalist project in Northeast Asia following the path trodden by Europe in the second half of the twentieth century. Korea 7.6 4 Taiwan 6.3 1 China 20.5 2 U.S 11.6 6 S. To which each of these elements has been transferred to the Northeast Asia
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