Eurointegration aspects of meat production in agricultural enterprises of Ukraine: problems and prospects

Abstract

European integration processes have become an indispensable feature and direction of development of meat cattle breeding in Ukraine. To calculate the forecast value of gross production of livestock products, we have chosen a method based on the construction of mathematical statistical models. Forecast indicators of cattle livestock in agricultural enterprises of Ukraine are calculated by constructing a polynomial trend line, since the equation of this model has the highest correlation and determination coefficients (0.980051 and 0.9605 respectively), that is, it describes a number of dynamics most reliably. The polynomial trend model is described by the following equation: y = 35.134x2 – 1704.8x + 20748. According to the results of calculations in 2025, the achievement of the cattle population is projected at 2.243.7 thousand heads. The dynamics of the pig population also reflects the polynomial trend model described by the following equation: y = 19.638x2 – 812.86x + 10803, the correlation and determination coefficients of 0.885268 and 0.77837, respectively. In case of preservation of the current tendency, in 2025 the pig population in agricultural enterprises of Ukraine is expected to grow to 5011.2 thousand head, which is 38% more than in 2017. Based on the calculations (polynominal trend y = 148.43x2 – 2542.8x + 72000, the coefficients of correlation and determination are 0.808084 and 0.653), we forecast that in 2025 in agricultural enterprises of Ukraine, the number of all species of poultry will reach 153019,1 thousand heads. This is 1.4 times more than in 2017. According to our calculations (polynomial trend y = 3.013x2 – 134.03x1489.4, correlation coefficients and determination coefficients (0.95734 and 0.9165 respectively), the production of beef and veal in Ukraine in the coming years will gradually increase, despite decreasing volumes Due to the use of modern technologies and increased production intensification, we predict that in 2025 agricultural enterprises of Ukraine will produce 606.8 tons of pork, which is 50.1% more than in 2017. However, paying attention to the projected volumes of pork production, it should be borne in mind that agrarian production in general and pig production in particular are oriented towards market demand, therefore, its efficiency depends on the competitiveness on the domestic and foreign markets. The increased demand for poultry meat stimulates an increase in its volumes on an industrial basis, first of all, the production of broilers, as speedy and high-yielding poultry. According to our calculations (polynominal trend y = 2.1386x2 – 19.579x + 144.8, correlation coefficients and determination (0.985089 and 0.9704 respectively), using modern means of mechanization and automation of technological processes at low labor costs and facilities per unit of production, commodity producers will be able to produce in 2025 р. 2270,5 thousand. tons of poultry meat. In our opinion, the advantages of integrating meat poultry farming into the European Union are complicated by requirements and restrictions and create additional incentives for the development and improvement of production.