Eurasian energy prospects and politics: Need for a longer-term western strategy

Abstract

The Eurasian world around the Caspian Sea is likely to become an important oil and natural gas producer. This region is a gateway to three regions that are of great strategic importance to the West: to the east lies China and the rest of Asia; to the south lies Iran, Afghanistan, and the Islamic world; to the west and north lies Russia, Turkey and Europe. This is a region much larger than Western Europe. Future developments in Eurasia will therefore affect fundamentally not only the security of Western energy supplies, but also the traditional geopolitical equation in that part of the globe. The West needs to address current problems there as well as to pursue a proactive policy of conflict prevention. The European Union already imports half of its primary energy requirements, which will increase to 75% by the year 2020. Mutually rewarding energy cooperation offers the best means for integrating this region into the world family of market democracies. Turkey, a reassuringly Western ally, stands well positioned geographically, politically and economically to act as an energy ‘bridge’ between Eurasia and the West.