Ethnic Partisanship in Ethiopia

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Ethnic identity is often cited as an important variable explaining voter choices in Africa. Ethiopia, since 1994, has adopted an ethnically-based federal system, which makes it an interesting test case of the importance of ethnicity in shaping voter preferences. Indeed, one might expect higher levels of ethnification of voter preferences in Ethiopia when compared to other African countries. Using cross-national data from the World Values Survey and Afrobarometer, it is found that Ethiopian voters have relatively higher levels of concentrated partisan support than do other African countries. However, when examining the propensity of individual voters to express partisan preferences that “defect” from their ethnic position, I find that the evaluations of government performance explain defections better than does the intensity of ethnic identity or expectations for patronage.