Abstract
This paper highlights the fact that different distributional aspects of ethnicity matter for conflict. We axiomatically derive a parametric class of indices of conflict potential obtained as the sum of each ethnic group’s relative power weighted by the probability of across group interactions. The power component of an extreme element of this class of indices is given by the Penrose–Banzhaf measure of relative power. This index combines in a non-linear way fractionalization, polarization and dominance. The empirical analysis verifies that it outperforms the existing indices of ethnic diversity in explaining ethnic conflict onset.
Highlights
In this paper we provide a novel investigation of the relation between different distributional aspects of ethnicity and the occurrence of ethnic conflicts
Using the data on ethnic groupings from the Ethnic Power Relations data set (Wimmer et al 2009) we show that, when compared to the existing and widely used indices of ethnic diversity, the index based on the Penrose–Banzhaf measure of relative power results in a strong and significant correlate of ethnic conflict onset even after inclusion of an additional set of regressors and under alternative model specifications
In this paper we show how the relative importance of fractionalization, polarization and dominance in the determination of conflict potential may depend on the characteristics of the underlying population distribution across groups
Summary
In this paper we provide a novel investigation of the relation between different distributional aspects of ethnicity and the occurrence of ethnic conflicts. Even though in this paper we do not use any of these dynamic models, we implicitly allow for cooperation and interdependence between groups in a different setting and show that the probability of conflict outbreak can be related to fractionalization, polarization and dominance. Using the data on ethnic groupings from the Ethnic Power Relations data set (Wimmer et al 2009) we show that, when compared to the existing and widely used indices of ethnic diversity, the index based on the Penrose–Banzhaf measure of relative power results in a strong and significant correlate of ethnic conflict onset even after inclusion of an additional set of regressors and under alternative model specifications.
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