Estuarine tidal range dynamics under rising sea levels.

João Miguel Dias,Shengyang Chen,Stefan Felder,Danial Khojasteh,William Glamore,Valentin Heimhuber

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0257538

Abstract

How an estuary responds to sea level rise (SLR) is complex and depends on energy drivers (e.g., tides and river inflows), estuarine geometry (e.g., length and depth), intrinsic fluid properties (e.g., density), and bed/bank roughness. While changes to the tidal range under SLR can impact estuarine sediment transport, water quality, and vegetation communities, studies on the altered tidal range under SLR are often based on case studies with outcomes applicable to a specific site. As such, this study produced a large ensemble of estuarine hydrodynamic models (>1800) to provide a systematic understanding of how tidal range dynamics within different estuary types may change under various SLR and river inflow scenarios. The results indicated that SLR often amplifies the tidal range of different estuary types, except for short estuaries with a low tidal range at the mouth where SLR attenuates the tides. SLR alters the location of the points with minimum tidal range and overall tidal range patterns in an estuary. Variations in tidal range were more evident in converging estuaries, shallower systems, or in estuaries with strong river inflows. These findings provide an indication of how different estuary types may respond to estuaries and may assist estuarine managers and decision makers.

Highlights

Estuarine environments provide a range of socio-economic and ecologic services, including primary production, water purification, recreational opportunities, navigational routes, and provision of nurseries for aquatic species [1,2,3,4,5,6]
A growing body of literature indicates that estuaries are likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), as they are situated in lowelevation coastal areas, adjacent to the open ocean [7,8,9,10]
This study aims to answer the following questions: 1. How will SLR influence the tidal range of various estuary types?

Summary

Introduction

Estuarine environments provide a range of socio-economic and ecologic services, including primary production, water purification, recreational opportunities, navigational routes, and provision of nurseries for aquatic species [1,2,3,4,5,6]. A growing body of literature indicates that estuaries are likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), as they are situated in lowelevation coastal areas, adjacent to the open ocean [7,8,9,10]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global mean sea levels are estimated to rise between 0.28 m to 1.02 m by 2100, relative to the 1995–2014 average [11]. The environmental and socio-economic impacts of SLR could be substantial [15, 16], to the 630 million people who live on land below the projected upper range of high tide levels [17].

Objectives

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion